Monday, November 10, 2008

Obama = Dukakis + Demographics + Internet

Bowers makes the case that Obama wasn't a better candidate than Dukakis. It's just that demographic and technological changes since 1988 have made the terrain more favorable to Democrats. Worth a look:
These three broad social trends--the network neutral Internet, the increasing number of non-Christians in America, and the increasing number of non-whites in America (mainly Latinos)--were more responsible for the 2008 Democratic victories than any other factor. This includes the relative strengths of the two major candidates, the performance and strategic decisions of the campaigns, and even the pro-Democratic political environment caused by widespread disaffection with Republican governance. These demographic and media trends are the main reason non-southern Democratic nominees have once again become competitive in Presidential elections. Without them, all of our nominees who are not "good ol' boys" would end up suffering the same fate as Dukakis.
This ought to scare the Republicans: they lost not because Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime supercandidate, but because fundamental trends in our society are dooming them.

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