Sunday, April 27, 2008

Note to mainstream media: Clinton is a total longshot

One thing that's pissing me off about mainstream media coverage of the Democratic primary is their depiction of it like some neck-and-neck, down to the wire race. It isn't. Clinton's chances are quite slim. Intrade (which isn't prescient or anything but is a good reflection of the current conventional wisdom) has her at about 17%, to Obama's 81%.

What about her 9% victory in Pennsylvania? It doesn't mean squat. Pennsylvania happened pretty much like people were expecting it to happen. And every time the expected happens, Clinton loses an opportunity to make the astronomical gains she would need to get the nomination. Yes, she "won". But that's like scoring 2 runs in the 8th inning when you're behind 13 to 1: yes, better to get 2 runs than no runs, but in terms of your chances of winning, they've actually gone down. To pull even, you'd need to be scoring an average of 6 runs per inning. Scoring 2 runs in this situation doesn't mean "the momentum as shifted" or any crap like that.

Basically, Clinton is hanging around hoping Obama will be struck by a meteorite or make some gaffe that can be inflated into something huge enough that he can be depicted as unelectable. Her campaign has done a great job at pretending they still have a chance, and has made all sorts of ridiculous claims about what metrics really matter. And from what I can tell, NPR and the New York Times are still taking this bullshit seriously. Stop already. She can't win. And her campaign is annoying the crap out of me with its Rovian baloney.


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