Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Final pre-election poll results out

As noted earlier fivethirtyeight.com now has the final poll results up.

Almost everything tilts Obama's way here. In the final updates, only Indiana seems to be trending towards McCain at all. Even if you assume Obama's 6.1% lead nationwide is a figment of bad polling, it still looks good for him. Even losing every state where his lead is less than this (the tossups) still leaves him at 273 electoral votes.

So here is my preliminary call: this race is now Obama's to lose. McCain needs to pick off at least one solid Obama state, in addition to all the tossups to win this. The only two that look really possible for Obama to maybe lose of the remaining states are Pennsylvania and Colorado. McCain needs at least one of those, or a total shocker.


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