Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Grishnash's election update

Grishnash has been turning his mathematical mind to the primaries recently. Here's his latest:
Obama won Texas. Yes, all the national media have Clinton listed as up by about 101,000 votes statewide, but because of the weird state senatorial district weighting, and post-election precinct convention system, Obama's going to take about 99 Texan delegates to Clinton's 94.
Assuming Obama picks up at least 3 delegates in Mississippi tomorrow, which is virtually automatic, the race will officially enter a phase where Clinton can only win by virtue of superdelegate votes and/or Michigan and Florida.
Here is my response to Grishnash:
I think the media have not done a good job at depicting just how fantastical a scenario would have to happen for Clinton to win the nomination (unlikely landslides, Michigan & Florida being seated "as is", superdelegate defections and going against their state, the popular vote, or the pledged delegate count, etc.). Her campaign has done a good job of making the race look like a close contest. And recently, it has been. But every "close contest" that happens now is really a big loss for Clinton, because it means a lost opportunity to make up ground.

It seems to me that the Clinton campaign is like Wiley E. Coyote: it's run off a cliff and in a hopeless situation, but as long as it doesn't realize it, or act like it doesn't realize it, it can still make forward progress. And of course a protracted race is favorable to the media, so they help keep it going.


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