Friday, September 26, 2008

Prediction: McCain will dump Palin

I think he'll do it for the wrong reasons, but I think he'll do it. Why? For the same reason he picked her in the first place: because it will be a huge, dramatic gesture that will capture the news cycle. McCain's campaign lately has been one desperate move after another. He's flailing for some game-changing move that will shake things up enough to get him out of his current rut. Palin's abyssmally received interview performances and parade of lies and scandals have become a drag on the ticket. Of course, they will probably put forward a health or family reason.

I'm not sure how this would work, though: now that the conventions are over, what's the mechanism for replacing a VP nominee? And I bet many ballots have already been printed. But the fact that it'll cause confusion and difficulty will only make it a more attractive option
for McCain.

I'm enamored enough of my theory that I'm going to place a bet on intrade. But it's a bit tricky funding an account, so I haven't done it yet. It's a longshot, but it will be a small bet and if I'm right I'll have some great bragging rights. And if I'm wrong, Palin's presence will probably drag McCain down, which will more than compensate.

[I sent this from my iPhone, so please excuse any excessive brevity or
typographical errors.]
--Zachary Drake


Blogger grishnash said...

Since we don't really have a national Presidential election in this country (we have 50 simultaneous state elections), the effects would vary greatly state to state. I'm most familiar with Oregon's laws on this, so that's what I'll discuss. As you alluded to, Oregon's ballots are already mostly printed at this point. They get mailed out in just over 2 weeks now. In any case, it's too late to change the ballots to say anything but John McCain/Sarah Palin.

Oregon law, though, says that while the names of the Presidential/Vice-Presidential ticket are written on the ballot, and can't be changed within the last 60 days before the election, the vote you are actually casting is for a slate of electors committed to voting for the PARTY you vote for. Those electors, once chosen, are supposed to be bound by state law to vote whatever ticket the party bosses tell them to when the Electoral College votes.

So, if McCain dumps Palin now, the replacement VP would not appear on the ballot, but the replacement VP would get the electoral votes still if they won the state.

Other states can, and probably do, have rules that differ significantly from this. It's a matter of state law up until the point where the electors vote in December. After that point, it's a Constitutional matter. If the President-Elect quits after that point, the VP-Elect becomes President on Jan. 20. If the President stays on but the VP quits, the President gets to nominate a new Vice-President, but the nominated candidate has to be confirmed by both the House and Senate.

8:51 AM, September 27, 2008  

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