Friday, September 05, 2008

What a couple of days

Well, I imagine there's quite a bit of Palinmania going on: the Republican base loves her, the tabloids love her, everyone's talking about her. Here are my thoughts: she's going to help McCain energize the base, but she's going to alienate the independents and swing voters. Her speech was a "red meat" speech rather than a "reach out" speech. And she's also activating the Democratic base in reaction against her. I don't think an "activate the base" strategy is going to work in 2008 (neither does James Fallows), simply because that was what barely worked in 2000 and 2004, and the trends since then have been against the Republicans since then.

So yes, we should take Palin seriously as a threat, even if we have trouble taking her seriously as a candidate. But the Real Clear Politics, electoral-vote.com, Pollster.com, and FiveThirtyEight composites are all still predicting an Obama victory. There may be a Republican bounce after the convention, but I think the ongoing Palin revelations will push that aside.

And the Palin scandals won't stop. The latest is that the Alaska police union is filing a complaint against Palin for snooping into personnel records. I have no idea if there are any "she must withdraw" doozies out there. I suspect there won't be. But there will be a drip drip drip of things trickling out. We're only on day six of getting to know her and already there's troopergate, her support of the "bridge to nowhere" and repeated lying about it, her associations with seccessionists, her attempt to get books banned, the staggering debt she left Wassalia with, the anti-Jewish remarks made at her church, etc. It's pretty clear she wasn't well-vetted. Since she's such an unknown, there's so much we need to learn about her. Isn't learning fun?

By the way, don't forget to give Obama and/or other Democrats some money. "Palin nomination backfires as Democrats roll in the cash" would be a great headline to see.

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