Maniak: not buying North Korean test

My rocketry expert, Maniak, weighs in:

I'm not ready to buy the reports of an imminent North Korean nuclear test yet. The pattern of where the reports and denials are coming from don't give it a lot of credibility at this point. It all seems to stem from an ABC report from a "senior defense official" saying that there is suspicious vehicle activity that looks like a nuclear test preparation. That seems rather flimsy, if that's all that it is. North Korea knows where our satellites are, and they often like to put on shows for them. They've done much more elaborate shows in the past, such as digging deep shafts, and then filling them back in. That's the sort of evidence you'd expect before a nuclear test, but the last time they did that, there was no follow through. I would guess that it's probably some kind of bluff this time. With the comparitive state of their nuclear and rocketry technology, they would raise the threat level more (assuming that's what they're trying for) by concentrating on improving their long range missiles than trying any high-risk nuclear test. Of course, this could be an indication that they're having a bit of trouble in that department, so this is a way to compensate.

Voice of America reports that a South Korean Official (in response to the same ABC report) is saying "he has seen no evidence that Pyongyang is preparing to test a nuclear device."