Saturday, March 17, 2007

Intrade market prediction on Gonzales' resignation

Here's the contract if you want to look at it or bet on it(HT: rubber hose). When I checked, the March contract last traded below 50, implying a less than 50% chance of resignation before the end of March. But the June and September contracts were trading at 78.5 and 90, respectively. It might be worth keeping an eye on these, but my understanding is that these future markets do little more than track current conventional wisdom. Still, that can be useful.

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