Don't get your polling info from the mainstream media
We're getting some real weirdness from the mainstream media in how they're reporting the state of this election. Check out the idiocy on washingtonpost.com. As of this post:
- They have Michigan listed as a "battleground state", even though Obama is ahead by 8.2% and McCain has publicly given up contesting the state.
- On the other hand, West Virginia is listed as "leaning Republican" even though McCain is only ahead by 2.2% and Obama is fighting hard there.
- Pennsylvania is listed as a "battleground state" even though they have Obama up by 13.8%
Bottom line is that all the independent sites are predicting an Obama victory, and many mainstream sites are fudging things to keep Obama's electoral vote count under the 270 needed to win. Why might this be? Bowers:
Maybe they are afraid of being accused of pro-Obama bias (probably). Maybe they are just biased toward McCain (possibly). Maybe they just suck at electoral forecasting (definitely). Maybe they are invested in a close campaign (absolutely). Whatever it is, you would be well served to never, ever listen to big media for election forecasts and horserace information. They just don't have it. Stick to the small media independent websites, since we pretty only exist because the big media websites suck so bad at this stuff. So much information is publicly available now that a few nerds obsessed with poll numbers are much better sources for election information than you will every get from big media. The lack of depth in horserace coverage on major news websites is actually how I discovered the blogosphere myself back in 2002.I'm getting my forecasting information from: