Monday, October 20, 2008

A simple way to look at the electoral vote race

From Bowers at Open Left:

This means that the easiest way to understand the presidential campaign right now is to look at polling from only those seven states. If McCain sweeps, then he wins. If Obama prevents the McCain sweep, then he wins. Here are the latest polls from those seven states, all of the polls having the majority of their interviews conducted over the past seven days:

Victory Chart
Obama needs one of these states to win it all
State EV's Obama
Margin # Polls
Colorado 9 50.5% 46.0% +4.5% 2
Florida 27 48.2% 44.8% +3.4% 6
Missouri 11 48.0% 46.7% +1.3% 3
Nevada 5 49.5% 45.5% +4.0% 2
North Carolina 15 48.3% 44.7% +3.6% 3
Ohio 20 48.8% 45.5% +3.3% 4
Virginia 13 52.0% 43.3% +8.7% 3

Of course this is an over-simplification: Other states that seem "safe" one way or the other could shift, rendering obsolete this way of looking at the race. But right now, this is a pretty good way of depicting just how hard a job McCain is going to have. Obama has many paths to victory, and enough money and resources to pursue a lot of them vigorously. McCain does not.


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