Monday, October 06, 2008

Obama's lead: some historical perspective

Chris Bowers of Open Left compiled this list of polling margins, so you can put Obama's current lead in some historical perspective:
18.2%: Ronald Reagan 1984
10.7%: House Democrats 1982
9.7%: Ronald Reagan 1980
8.51%: Bill Clinton 1996

8.50%: Obama September 5th
8.3%: Obama October 4th
7.9%: House Democrats 2006
7.8%: Obama October 3rd
7.7%: George H. W. Bush 1988
7.0%: Obama October 2nd
6.3%: Obama October 1st
5.9%: House Republicans 1994
5.6%: Bill Clinton 1992

5.5%: Obama September 27th
5.0%: Obama September 26th
4.6%: House Republicans 2002
3.8%: Obama September 25th
The October attack war is starting up, and that may shake things up. But Obama has more ammunition (both financially and in terms of material to use) than McCain does, so I don't see how McCain can climb out of his current ditch. Of course, a lot can happen in the remaining days.

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