Rocket speculation [Updated again]

There’s a lot of confusion and speculation about the type of rocket that hit Haifa. This article says they are Iranian made Raad (“Thunder”) missles. This article tries to figure out exactly what kind of missiles they are.

Why is this rocket geekery important? Well, because it determines how much of Israel Hezbollah could hit with missiles, and it might provide clues as to how directly Iran was involved. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Iran backs Hezbollah, but there are people arguing about whether these acts were directly instigated by Iran to spark a regional war.

The blogometer for today has a good roundup of blog opinion on Middle East matters.

Update: Maniak weighs in:

OK, I think the "Raad-1" or "Thunder-1" thing is a bit of bull on Hezbollah's part now. If they really have Raad-1 missiles, it's not the same missile that Iran calls a "Raad-1". Looking at that picture on the first article you linked to, that's not an Iranian Raad-1, which is a relatively sophisticated guided missile. I think that thing is a Fajr-5 off of it's vehicular launch platform for whatever reason. (Either they don't want to show off their truck or they didn't get one with the missiles). The stats that Hezbollah is bragging about, 333 mm in diameter, and 100 kg warhead, match the Fajr-5, not the Raad-1. Besides the even more extended range, this thing's not too different from the Fajr-3 I was guessing at first.

Where will all this lead?

Update II: Maniak again:

Iran's definitely got more than an indirect hand in this. The Fajr-5 is pretty much brand new, meaning those missiles came from Iran not more than maybe a month or two ago. This isn't army surplus crap.

And if you ever need a textbook example of the "Fog of War", this email thread is it. I can only imagine how much worse it is when you're not safely halfway around the world from where that stuff's landing.