Markets are not omniscient

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I predicted (OK, it was more of a guess than a prediction) a Democratic Senate takeover on October 25th. If only I had put my money where my mouth was:

(HT: Atrios) Tradesports was predicting Republican control with a 70% probability right up until election day. So much for the vaunted ability of markets to divine outcomes. It seems as though they just reflect the thinking of the participants. If that thinking is off, the market will be off, too. Maybe that's why CEO pay has rocketed off into the stupidosphere.

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